![]() The last thing we want to do is force early action, so I am looking at only one matchup right now. There isn't much that stands out to me after a first look at the spreads and totals this week. Until we see a significant shift in the market with extraordinarily high totals or see a shift from offenses stylistically, I don't see any reason to expect a significant correction in Week 4. This isn't groundbreaking, but if teams are playing at a faster pace, more plays will be run. That shows seconds per play being 1.3 faster in 2020 than in 2019. There are situation-specific factors when it comes to seconds per play Football Outsiders accounts for those with its situation-neutral pace metric. That's nearly a full second faster than in 2019 (27.63), which saw an increase in pace of play, compared to 28.05 in 2018. Through the first two weeks of this season, the average amount of time between plays was 26.69 seconds, according to Football Outsiders. Beyond the unique offseason and the lack of preseason games, there is at least one other likely reason that scoring is up so much. I don't think we are necessarily ripe for a correction in Week 4, either. I mentioned last week that I wouldn't be blindly looking to bet overs or unders in Week 3. Neither team scored, and a few more unders came in later, but overs are still the big story once again. In fact, overs were 7-0 when the Bengals and Eagles went into overtime needing just one point to push the game over the total. Overs continued to be very successful in Week 3. NFL Week 4 betting first look: Lines we like now Preston Johnson, ESPN Sports Betting Analyst See which other teams to pick here.You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser ![]() SportsLine's model projects that the Chargers win by 10, giving them the cover in well over 50% of simulations. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) is reportedly out for the Raiders, further complicating their outlook for this game. Mike Williams (ACL) is done for the year, but the Chargers have a deep group of receivers, headlined by veteran Keenan Allen, who can exploit a Las Vegas defense that has let opponents complete nearly 75% of passes this season. They bounced back nicely with a win over the Vikings as 1-point underdogs in Week 3. Both losses, however, came down to the end in Week 1 and Week 2. The Chargers are 1-2 both straight-up and against the spread. See which other teams to pick here.Īnother one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Chargers (-6.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. That's a big reason why the model has the Texans covering in over 50% of simulations. If you take away Pittsburgh's two defensive touchdowns, the Steelers have only averaged 14.0 points and 275.7 yards per game. Meanwhile, this will be the first time the Steelers have been favored this season and the offense has been a disappointment. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. Will those NFL betting trends continue, or is this a week that NFL favorites will thrive? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now. They're also covering at a 54.5% clip entering this week. They entered the week 19-29 straight-up, returning more than five units of profit. Betting on NFL underdogs has been the profitable route thus far in 2023. The Cowboys (-6), 49ers (-14) and Chiefs (-8) are all listed as at least a touchdown favorite. Heavier favorites in the Week 4 NFL Vegas lines will come into play later in the day. Eight of those nine NFL games feature NFL spreads of 4.5 points or tighter according to the latest Week 4 NFL odds. It could be a competitive Week 4 NFL schedule, especially during the 1 p.m.
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